हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों (हिमनदो) पर जलवायु परिवर्तन का मात्रात्मक प्रभाव : -डॉ राजेंद्र डोभाल

 

हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों (हिमनदो) पर जलवायु परिवर्तन का मात्रात्मक प्रभाव : -डॉ राजेंद्र डोभाल

जलवायु-ग्लेशियर-सम्बद्धताः हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरो की पृष्ठभूमि तथा नवीनतम सघन अध्ययन की आवश्यकता।
ग्लेशियर हिम का एक विशाल पिण्ड है जिसकी संरचना हिमकणों के पुनः क्रिस्टलीकरण द्वारा होती है। हिमालय ध्रुवीय क्षेत्रों से बाहर ग्लेशियरों का विशालतम संघनित क्षेत्र है और इसलिए ग्लेशियर युक्त हिमालय को तीसरा ध्रुव भी कहा जाता है। पारिस्थितिकीय रूप से संवेदनशील उच्च क्षेत्रों एवं अक्षांशो में इनकी उपस्थिति के कारण ये तापक्रम एवं हिमपातीय स्थितियों से तुरन्त ही प्रभावित होते हैं तथा इसी कारण ये अतीत एवं वर्तमान के जलवायु परिवर्तन के पुनर्निर्माण में प्रभावी प्रतिस्थानी माने जाते हैं। इस बात के अनेकों वैज्ञानिक कथन सुझाते हैं कि मानव निर्मित ग्रीन हाउस गैसों के उत्सर्जन के फलस्वरूप पृथ्वी की सतह के वार्षिक औसत तापमान में विगत 100 वर्षो में 0-74$01-18 डिग्री सेल्सियस की वृद्धि हुई है (IPCC,2007)

ऐसी धारणा है कि भंगुर ग्लेशियरीय पारिस्थितिकी पर इस वृद्धि की प्रवृति का गंभीर प्रभाव है तथा तीसरे ध्रुव में विलुप्त हो रहे ग्लेशियर तथा तीव्रता से पिघल रहे ग्लेशियरों एवं पृथ्वी के तापमान में वृद्धि (ग्लोबल वार्मिग) में मानवनिर्मित गतिविधियों का बहुत बड़ा हाथ है। इसके अतिरिक्त ऐसे ग्लेशियर हिमाच्छादित क्षेत्र समीपस्थ क्षेत्र में अपनी सूक्ष्म जलवायु सृजित करते हैं तथा वहां की क्षेत्रीय जलवायु को नियंत्रित करते है। ऋतुओं के प्रारंभ होते समय तथा उनकी कालावधि में जो अवलोकनीय परिवर्तन अवक्षेपण (प्रेसिपिटेशन) के कारण सूखा, बाढ़, बादल फटना नदियों का प्रवाह बढ़ना, जैवविविधता में बहुलता आदि जलवायु परिवर्तन के सूचक माने जाते हैं, जो मानव निर्मित गतिविधियों में वृद्धि के कारण होते हैं। आज जलवायु परिवर्तन के प्रति अनुकूलशीलता एक ऐसा ज्वलन्त विषय बना हुआ है जो इसके विरूद्ध प्रभावी रणनीति तैयार करने के लिए पूरे विश्व का ध्यान आकर्षित कर रहा है।

हजारों हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों में से कुछ चुनिंदा ग्लेशियरों के स्नाउट की स्थिति का प्रत्यक्ष अवलोकन करने पर यह स्पष्ट होता है कि वर्तमान में ग्लेशियरों की सामान्य स्थिति ह्रासोन्मुख है तथापि प्रतिस्थानियों के समावेश में वृद्धि के कारण यह स्पष्ट हो रहा है कि स्नाउट की स्थिति निरपवाद रूप से ग्लेशियर के आगे बढने या पीछे हटने की स्थिति का अनुवीक्षण करने में सूचक हो सकती है किन्तु तापक्रम एवं अवक्षेपण में परिवर्तन का निर्णायक संकेतक नही हो सकती । ग्लेशियर की प्रास्थिति (स्टेटस) का मास बैलेन्स डाटा निसन्देह एक अधिक अच्छा संकेतक हो सकता है। ग्लेशियर के व्यवहार में अन्तरवार्षिक एवं अन्तरदशकीय जलवायु संबंधी प्रभावों (ग्लोबल वार्मिंग) पर दीर्धकालिक मास बैलेन्स डाटा की अनुपल्ब्धता ने हमारे विश्वास को बहुत ही बाधित किया है। इस वैश्विक चलन (ट्रेण्ड) के विपरीत मध्य कराकोरम क्षेत्र के अनेकों ग्लेशियर संभवतः बढे हुए अवक्षेपण के कारण अपनी टंग पर या तो आगे बढ़ गए हैं अथवा घने हो गए हैं। (Hewitt 2005 1pcc 2007)

ग्लेशियरों के स्वास्थ्य पर और अधिक समीक्षात्मक मूल्यांकन में क्षेत्रीय जलवायु परिवर्तन में अन्तर को स्वीकारते हुए 1970 से 1990 के मध्य ग्लेशियर के पीछे हटने में कमी दर्शाई गई है। (orlemans 2005) इस अन्तराल में 1970 के आसपास ग्लेशियर का मास बैलेंस या तो शून्य के समीप था अथवा शून्य से कुछ थोडा ही आगे था। इन कथनों के परिपेक्ष्य में यह प्रश्न उठाया जाने लगा है कि क्या विगत 2-3 दशकों में ग्लोबल वार्मिंग में अधिक कमी मानवनिर्मित गतिविधियों के कारण अथवा प्राकृतिक दीर्धकालिक कालचक्रीय परिवर्तन से आई हैघ् इसके अतिरिक्त भौतिक परिस्थितियों पर यह तर्क दिया गया है कि ग्लेशरीय मास बैलेंस पर नकारात्मक प्रभावों के विपरीत हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों पर वैश्विक तापमान में वृद्धि एक सकारात्मक प्रभाव हो सकता है, जो ग्रीष्मकालीन संचयन एवं अपक्षरण से है (owen et al 2002) यह सुझाव इस तथ्य पर आधारित है कि बढ़ा हुआ तापमान भू-समुद्र के बढे़ हुए तापमान में अन्तर बढ़ाएगा तथा इसके फलस्वरूप हिन्दमहासागर से और अधिक आर्द्रता को सोख लेगा जो हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों की वृद्धि में योगकारक होगा।

सारांशतः यह सुझाया जा सकता है कि ग्लेशियरों के स्वास्थ्य पर ग्लोबल वार्मिंग के परिपेक्ष्य में वर्तमान में लगाए जा रहे अनुमानों के आधार पर कोई अंतिम निष्कर्ष नही निकाला जा सकता है तथा ये अभी अनिर्णायक ही हैं। हिमालय से उद्गमित इन ग्लेशियरों का पिघला हुआ जल नदियों का जलाशय है जो भारतीय विशाल भूभाग की जीवन्तता एवं शस्यश्यामलता बनाए हुए है। कृषि उत्पादन, जल विद्युत उत्पादन, पेयजल आपूर्ति, जलवायु/मौसम संबंधी भविष्यवाणी, पारिस्थितिकी प्रणाली की सततता विशेषतः वर्तमान में बढती हुई जनसंख्या एवं औद्योगिक एवं तकनीकी विकास क्रम के परिपेक्ष्य में ग्लेशियर की परिवर्तनशीलता के दूरगामी परिणामों को समझते हुए आज हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों का अध्ययन तथा उन पर शोध करने का उत्तरदायित्व लेना अत्यन्त महत्वपूर्ण एवं आवश्यक हो गया है।

हिमालयीय ग्लेशियर विज्ञान पर शोध की रूपरेखाः –

हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों पर जलवायु परिवर्तन विशेषतः ग्लोबल वार्मिंग के संभाव्य प्रभावों को स्वीकार करते हुए प्रधानमंत्री की अध्यक्षता में संपन्न हुई भारतीय जलवायु परिवर्तन परिषद की बैठक में देश के उच्च शिक्षा संस्थानो में इस विषय में शोध, अनुसंधान की क्षमता विस्तार सृजित करने हेतु नीति विषयक निर्णय लिया गया। जलवायु परिवर्तन के परिपेक्ष में हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों पर शोधकार्य राष्ट्रीय ड्राफ्ट नीति का एक महत्वपूर्ण अंग हैं। इसके अनुसरण में इस महत्वपूर्ण विषय पर विचार विमर्श करने हेतु भारत सरकार के प्रधान वैज्ञानिक सलाहकार की अध्यक्षता में अनेक बैठकों की श्रृंखलाओं एवं गहन चिन्तन सत्रों का आयोजन किया गया। इन कार्यकलापों को पूर्णरूप से समन्वित करने हेतु विज्ञान एवं प्रोद्योगिकी विभाग (डी.एस.टी) को एक केन्द्रीय एजेन्सी के रूप में प्रस्तुत किया गया। शोधकार्य के परीक्षण करने के लिए डी.एस.टी द्वारा दो स्वतंत्र समितियां गठित की गई हैं। सामान्यतः यह समझा गया कि सतत वैज्ञानिक आंकड़ों के अभाव में, इस स्थिति में ग्लोबल वार्मिंग के कारण हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों के घटने पर निष्कर्ष निकालने कठिन है अतः हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों के घटने की समस्या के निराकरण के लिए वर्तमान एवं नवीनतम आंकणों का उचित एवं वैज्ञानिक विधि से विश्लेषण करना आवश्यक होगा।

हिमालयीय ग्लेशियरों पर विभिन्न मानकों जैसे ग्लेशियरों की संख्या, सामयिक परिवर्तन, क्षरण के कारण जल स्रोतों पर प्रभाव, आदि पर विश्वसनीय उन्नत डाटासंचय की आवश्यकता को स्वीकार किया गया। पारस्परिक वादविवाद, विवेचना एवं विचार विमर्श के पश्चात एक विस्तृत परियोजना रिपोर्ट (ड़ी.पी.आर) तैयार की गई तथा उसे भारत सरकार के समक्ष प्रस्तुत किया गया। उसमें सर्वसम्मत संस्तुति यह थी कि समस्या के निदान के लिए इसे निकट से समझने की नितान्त आवश्यकता है तथा इस हेतु ग्लेशियर विज्ञान के क्षेत्र में विशेषतः जलवायु परिवर्तन- ग्लेशियर की पारस्परिक सम्बद्धता विषय पर एकीकृत शोध कार्य तीव्रगति से संम्पन्न करने के लिए निम्नलिखित कार्य योजना अनुमोदित की गईः-

1. विद्यमान शोध संस्थाओं के मध्य हिमालयीय ग्लेशियर विज्ञान पर एक पोर्टल का सृजन करना।

2. हिमालयीय ग्लेशियर विज्ञान पर समन्वित शोधकार्य के लिए केन्द्रक (नोडल) संस्थान का विकास।

3. हिमालयीय ग्लेशियर विज्ञान में प्रभावी अंतर्राष्ट्रीय सहयोग प्रदान करने के लिए संबंधित ज्ञान विज्ञान में सहभागिता की तलाश।

क्रमश: ……….

डॉ राजेंद्र डोभाल
महानिदेशक
विज्ञानं एवं प्रौद्योगिकी परिषद्
उत्तराखंड।

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